At what price will people begin to change their habbits?
The price of gas is certainly a hot topic these days. I know personally it has hit my pocket book quite hard. A couple years ago I bought a car I never thought I would buy simply because it was getting too expensive to drive one of my gas hogs every day to work. When I did this I went from no car payment and $1200 a month for gas, down to a $575 per month car payment and a fuel bill of $300 per month. A decent amount of savings. Now that gas prices have doubled since then, I am almost back at the point I started at. For the first time since I was 20 years old, I am seriously considering riding the bus because it is getting too expensive for me to drive.
But I’m not angry about it. Far from it, really.
Over the last few years I’ve been in many discussions about fuel prices, fuel efficiency, electric cars, traffic, and a few other related topics. Usually there are a few different catalysts to the conversation or debate, but my argument as always stood pretty much the same. I usually emphasize two of my opinions. So far they seem to be playing out as expected.
People won’t change unless they are forced to do so. This is common for a lot of systems outside of people. A system does not change unless it gets stressed to the point of being either uncomfortable or even failure. People will not give up their cars unless it becomes too much of a burden to keep it. The environment, global warming, pollution, none of these have an impact on the driving habits of most people. Yes there are a few who take these things seriously, but the majority of the population will take no action regarding these impacts of a car. Why? Because they can still afford to drive.
Stress to the system will also drive innovation. The electric car has been around since the time of Henry Ford. But in the last 100 years, there has been a negligible amount of research to make electric cars go further, faster, and more reliably. Yet look at the gains in automotive technology. The worlds fastest car in 1908 could only go 141 miles per hour. It had only 135 horsepower. My “economy” car has twice the power, and with very little modification could go just as fast. But the electric car, up until recently has not really improved in performance at nearly the same pace. The power may be close, but the range was limited to about 50 miles at best. But recently, there has been real change in this area. Take a look at the Chevrolet Volt or the Tesla Roadster. Real change is coming. Why? Because people has started to demand it as a result of Gas prices. It is getting too expensive to put fuel in your car. Research is now actively happening. Making electric cars that cost less to drive and are just as convenient as gas powered cars. And they look good too.
But what is the price per gallon which people start serious making the change? The point at which it goes from only people who are early adopters to mainstream? I have always argued it will be when gas here in the U.S. goes above $5.00 per gallon. I’ve mentioned this over the course of several years as I talked to people about this subject. Recently when Honda came out with their hybrid car, and again when Toyota came out with theirs, and even yesterday when talking about the Tesla roadster. Daily we seem to get closer to that point. The new technology started to appear around $3.50 per gallon and really started to look like a serious alternative when the price went to $4.00 per gallon. Now, as we get closer to $5.00 it seems more and more like an electric car will be a reality.
I don’t know for sure. Those are just my opinions. But I think we are ready for this now.